Baseball Prospectus system has Reds improving record over last season

Cincinnati Reds' Joey Votto runs the bases after hitting a solo home run off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Chad Kuhl during the first inning of a baseball game, Friday, Sept. 15, 2017, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

CINCINNATI (WKRC) - Reds fans will apparently have to wait for at least one more season for the team to record a winning record let alone begin to contend for the playoffs if a widely-respected ratings projection released recently by Baseball Prospectus is accurate.

Through its PECOTA ratings projections for individual hitters and pitchers for the 2018 Major League Baseball season that are then translated into wins and losses for each team, PECOTA projects the Reds to go 74-88 in 2018.

That would be an improvement over their 2017 record (68-94), but would be the Reds fifth straight losing season.

PECOTA is an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm and was developed in 2002. PECOTA forecasts a player's performance in advanced sabermetric categories developed by Baseball Prospectus.

PECOTA projects the Reds scoring 761 runs and allowing 833. Last season they scored 753 runs and allowed 869.

It's not a stretch to think the Reds could actually push to score 800 runs this season and, with improved health among the starting pitching staff, it's not a stretch to think the Reds could hold opponents to 800 runs this season-- and possibly less if some of the young pitchers take a step forward.

That would equate to the team actually pushing for a winning season.

Here is the projected finish and records for all National League Central Division teams:

  1. Chicago Cubs 89-73
  2. St. Louis Cardinals 84-78
  3. Milwaukee Brewers 83-79
  4. Pittsburgh Pirates 78-84
  5. Cincinnati Reds 74-88

Click here for projected records for all Major League Baseball teams.

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